The World in 2030

I have continued to enjoy reading Friedman’s book, as his predictions increase and the backing behind them become more clear. His proposals seems dramatic at first, but going through them step by step it all seems very possible. His point about the future need for immigration really stood out to me.

By going through the cycles in American history it makes a lot of sense about his predictions for the current cycle which started in 1980 and he predicts to end in the 2030s. They start with a successful president and end with a failed one, it makes me wonder….could Trump fail so bad he speeds up a cycle? Unlikely, but he first 100 day mark is coming up and I, like many Americans, am worried about the path he is taking our country down.

The border wall along the southern border to keep immigrants out… sounds a little too familiar. However, the tables will turn and we will need immigrants. Very different from the current rhetoric by the Trump administration and heard around the country by those against immigration… since ya know “they are stealing our jobs”. As the baby boomers age, they will need more people to produce… without anyone to work. The Trump administration is moving in the opposite direction that we need to be headed, putting our labor force behind where it needs to be. There is a decrease in young labor workers to do, so looks like we will need the immigrants we are currently turning away or deporting. It makes me wonder what it would look like in the 2020s and 2030s if we changed our policies now. The shortage of workers Friedman predicts is no later than 2020, just as other countries will need immigrants as well. Turns out we will be competing for them in the 2020s and 2030s, the US will actually have to incentivize immigrants to compete against other countries. The labor shortage will cause internal economic crisis, right as the confrontation with Russia comes to head.

I wonder how different this book would look if Friedman had written it now or what he would say about this past election. He predicts immigration will increase in 2015, guess he didn’t predict Trump but then again who did.

The article below maps how important immigration is for our work force as the US population ages, expanding on the points Friedman makes. The gap they predict if there isn’t immigration from 2015-2035 is 18 million, a huge part of the work force. 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-age-population-through-at-least-2035/

This is a TED talk I found about how to deal with the labor shortage of 2030 now. He looks at how we can prepare and change our culture to encourage immigration. Rainer Strack looks at the labor market in Germany, while not the same situation as the US, they will be facing similar labor shortages come 2020s and 2030s. There will be a global labor shortage, the more we prepare today, the better we will be tomorrow’s tomorrow.

https://www.ted.com/talks/rainer_strack_the_surprising_workforce_crisis_of_2030_and_how_to_start_solving_it_now#t-603782

-Jane

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One thought on “The World in 2030

  1. The whole idea of immigration in Friedman’s book is very interesting and increasingly salient with the election of Donald Trump. The idea of pursuing ways to change some of the fundamental values of American culture in order to promote warmer views of immigration is something that could be feasible. However, it seems that the climate in America and also in Europe has become increasingly harsh in this respect. It seems that Friedman might have predicted this future labor shortage correctly. I was wondering if you think that it will be possible to change our cultural values in the few years we have left to prevent this?

    – Vlad

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